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Affected by sanctions, Iran's fleet of oil tankers to return to oil storage use fundamentals are expected to improve

COUNTS: TIME:2019-05-09
  US President Donald trump announced on May 9, 2018 that the us would withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal and seek "" the highest level" "of economic sanctions against Iran. As a result, Iran's tanker fleet will not be able to operate normally and return to oil storage.

  We believe that the resumption of U.S. sanctions against Iran has the potential to improve the current supply and demand environment for oil tankers. Under the sanctions, Iran's own fleet will no longer be able to carry crude oil and will only be used as a floating bunker for oil storage. We estimate that there will be a definite decline in capacity supply in the tanker market. However, it remains to be seen whether the decrease in Iran's oil exports on the demand side can be offset by the increase in output of other oil exporting countries. Oil freight is expected to pick up, the recommended attention in the far sea can, merchant ships.
 
  The oil cycle began to decline in 2016, and the lifting of U.S. sanctions on Iran was one of the reasons. By Iran sanctions lifted in 2016, national Iranian oil belongs to tanker fleet to put into operation, long-term oil prices by the premium discount, large quantities of oil storage boat was put into operation, superposition of new ship bulk delivery, supply increases, the 2016-2017 two years VLCC combined supply and demand continued to deteriorate, demand growth run lose supply growth 4.4%, annual average TCE down from $64864 / day in 2015 to $17794 / day, April 1-2018, the mean VLCCTCE only $5939 / day.
 
  On the supply side: uncertainty about tanker capacity growth has fallen sharply: Iran accounts for 3.6% of the world's crude fleet and VLCC 5.3%. At present, the Iranian fleet mainly carries the oil exported by Iran, and some ships find the source of goods through the market. U.S. sanctions on Iran will make it impossible for the Iranian fleet to be loaded, unloaded and leased. The oil transportation supply end will appear the burst type to drop.
 
  Demand-side: focus on Iran's declining oil exports and increased production in the rest of the world. The demand-side impact depends on whether the reduction in Iran's oil exports can be offset by an increase in the output of the remaining oil exporters:
Scenario 1: Iranian exports return to 2015 level, and oil transport supply and demand are likely to improve. We assume that if Iran returns to the sanctions stage in 2015, its exports will drop by 1.2 million b/d, affecting demand by about 2.9%. Considering the impact of increased exports from other oil-producing countries, the actual impact of oil shipping demand will be less than 2.9%. In this case, the supply side of VLCC is expected to decline by 4-5.3%, and the demand is expected to decrease within 2.9%. Oil supply and demand will improve significantly.
 
Scenario 2: the enforcement intensity of this round of sanctions is stronger than that before 2015, and the improvement of oil transport supply and demand is not obvious. We assume that this round of sanctions is stronger than the previous round, that Iran's oil exports have dropped significantly, and that the increase in output of other oil exporters cannot significantly offset the decline in Iran's oil shipping demand, and that the improvement in supply and demand will be reduced.
 
Zhongyuan offshore energy co., ltd. has 43 VLCCS, 3 suez type tankers and 12 avra type tankers. Considering only the impact of VLCC, the company's pre-tax profit changes by 1 billion for every 10,000 usd of VLCCTCE fluctuation. Because the company has a part of COA and lease lock, the company VLCC TCE fluctuation range is slightly lower than the industry level.
 
  China merchants steamship: holds 44 VLCCS through China VLCC company, which holds 51%. The acquisition of China VLCC's remaining stake is still underway. According to the current situation, the company's pre-tax profit changes by 522 million for every 10,000 usd of VLCCTCE fluctuation.

  Because the company has a part of COA and lease lock, the company VLCC TCE fluctuation range is slightly lower than the industry level.
 
  On the whole, affected by the us sanctions, the return of Iranian oil tankers to oil storage will improve the supply and demand situation in the tanker market. Currently, the oil transport price is at an absolutely low level and basically cannot drop. The extent of supply and demand improvement depends on the extent of production increase of other oil exporting countries, which remains to be seen. Recommended to pay attention to tanker plate merchant ships, in the offshore energy.
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